The Analytics With Avery Blog

Determining Stanley Cup Contenders From Regular Season Lineups

July 4, 2025

Can a team's overall regular season lineup performance help predict playoff success more than the standings? In this post, I introduce a contender scoring system I built from 17 seasons of NHL data to evaluate which teams had the strongest lineup entering the playoffs. The results show that by looking beyond just the standings, we can uncover stronger indicators of postseason performance and identify teams that are truly built for a Cup run.

The Offensive Value of Assists Compared to Goals

May 14, 2025

In this post, I look into the question of how valuable primary and secondary assists really are compared to goals in terms of NHL offensive production. Using a method inspired by a 2014 post from Tyrel Stoakes, I test various assist weight combinations to find which best predicts a future goal contribution metric devised for this process. The results offer a clearer picture of how assists should be weighted in player evaluations, with some interesting implications, especially for secondary assists.