The Analytics With Avery Blog
Olympic Heartbreak
By Avery Doiron | February 27, 2026
Introduction
As a Canadian, Olympic hockey isn't just another tournament. It's something bigger. It's pride, tradition, and expectation. For decades, Canada has measured its hockey greatness in gold medals, from Sidney Crosby's Golden Goal in 2010 to Carey Price's dominance in 2014. This year's Olympic tournament felt like a new chapter. The old guard, led by Captain Canada himself, Sidney Crosby, was still here. But a new generation had arrived. NHL players weren't able to compete in 2018 and 2022, so this was the long-awaited Olympic appearance for a lot of players. Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and many more were on this team, and anything less than gold would be a disappointment. I disagreed with a few roster decisions, but the team they brought still looked like a contender to win the tournament. It felt like Canada had everything it needed to bring home the gold. Instead, it ended in heartbreak. They came home with silver, and in Canada, that isn't the goal.
The Preliminary Games
Team Canada started this tournament against Team Czechia, and they did so in a big way. The opening 5-0 win was exactly what we Canadian fans hoped for. It was structured and dominant, and Jordan Binnington looked calm and controlled in the net. The top line of Celebrini, McDavid, and Wilson looked great, and so did the line of Marner, Crosby, and Stone. MacKinnon looked good, but seemed to struggle to put together some chemistry with linemates Hagel and Suzuki, who looked especially uncomfortable on the wing. The defence pairs looked good, with Makar and Harley standing out individually, and, of course, a Jordan Binnington shutout against a Czechia team with some incredible shooters quieted some doubters real quick.
Next, Team Canada faced Team Switzerland. Thompson got the start in this game, and he played well, letting in just one goal on 25 shots. Midway through the game, Jon Cooper mixed the forward lines around a bit. This produced the “Mack” line of Celebrini, McDavid, and MacKinnon. Three of the top four point scorers in the National Hockey League on one line made for an extremely dynamic offensive unit that scored two goals in this game. Another electric game that boosted this group's confidence.
The final preliminary game for Team Canada was against Team France. Canada ran away with this one. After Tom Wilson scored first, France responded with a goal of their own, but Canada scored six unanswered, followed by another France goal and three more by Canada. At the end of the game, MacKinnon took a hit up high by French player Pierre Crinon, and then soon after, Crinon delivered a questionable hit on Seth Jarvis. Wilson was clearly not happy with the hits and dropped the gloves with Crinon. The game ended with a final score of 10-2, giving Canada a perfect record of three wins in three games.
As a Canadian fan, you couldn't really ask for more during the three preliminary games. Big wins with the top guys showing up and Binnington proving he was more than his regular-season self. Winning big in all three games, the score allowed Canada to earn the first overall seed (tie was broken by goal differential), which meant they'd be the home team every game moving forward, allowing them to have last change, which is an underrated advantage to receive. Now it was time for the team to prove it when elimination was on the line.
The Quarterfinals
After beating Team Denmark 3-2 the night before, Team Czechia now had to rematch a rested Canadian team. Macklin Celebrini kept proving he's the real deal as he potted one early, of course, being set up by McDavid. Czechia soon responded, getting one past Jordan Binnington off a pinball shot and then got another one later in the first, putting them up 2-1 after one.
At the start of the second, Crosby started taking some damage from Czechia, specifically from Radko Gudas, who, as fans of the NHL know, is not someone you want to get hit by. When he went back to the dressing room, I think every Canadian fan started stressing. We didn't know it at the time, but this was Crosby's last game at these Olympics. With Crosby now out, the “Mack” line returned, and some other line shuffling took place. Halfway through the second, Czechia took a power play, which led to Nathan MacKinnon tying things up. McDavid, at this point, has been looking like a one-man army, double-shifting and averaging a point per period. Play had been getting physical, and chances were happening at both ends of the ice. This game was much more exciting than the first match between these two, albeit a lot more stressful as a Team Canada fan. The second period ended with both teams tied at 2.
Going into the third, Jordan Binnington wasn't looking game-breaking, but he was making the stops he needed to make. At the other end, Lukas Dostal was rock-solid, making it difficult for Canada to get anything past him. Eventually, Ondrej Palat scored. I was a bit confused when I saw the assists go to Necas and Hertl, even though I knew Pastrnak was also on the ice. Was Czechia running four forwards and one defenceman that shift? Well, it turns out they did have four forwards on the ice, but still had two defencemen, for a total of six players on the ice for that goal. It was a blatant case of too-many-men that was completely missed by everyone. Nothing could be done at that point, and the score was 3-2 with eight minutes left. With just three and a half minutes left, Suzuki made my favourite play of the entire tournament. He crossed the blueline with the puck, but instead of dumping it in and changing with his linemates, he stuck with it and battled in the corner. This led to Canada getting the puck to the point for a shot that Suzuki perfectly tipped past Dostal. The game was tied 3-3. Jordan Binnington made a huge breakaway stop on Martin Necas with a minute left in the game. The third period ended, and we're heading to 3-on-3 overtime.
All it took was a minute and 22 seconds for Mitch Marner to slip between two Czech players and roof it to end the game in overtime. Canada was headed to the semis.
The Semifinals
The semifinal game against Finland was tight. Any Canadian fans who hadn't bitten off their nails from the quarter finals would surely have nothing left after this game. Canada struggled to generate offence early. They took a too-many-men penalty midway through the period, which didn't help, but they managed to kill it off. Soon after, Sam Bennett ran into Finnish goalie Juuse Saros (not exactly an uncommon occurrence for Bennett), giving the Finns a power play. Canada lost the faceoff, which went right to Mikko Rantanen, who fired the puck past Binnington and into the back of the net. Finland led 1-0 after one, with the shots tied at 8.
There was still lots of time left in the game, but Finland scored short-handed and it felt deflating for Canada. After some back-and-forth play, Canada responded. Their power play came through when it mattered, with Sam Reinhart scoring a much-needed goal for both the team and himself. This was a massive period for the boys in Red, outshooting the opponent 14-3, but they were still down by one.
In the third, Canada continued the pressure, while Finland just looked like they were trying to hold on for dear life, playing a very defensive style and seeing what Canada was throwing at them. It's hard to blame them. Halfway through the third, Canada broke through again. Shea Theodore ripped a shot that beat Saros to tie the game. Time continued to wind down, and as overtime was starting to look likely, Niko Mikkola took an unmissable high-sticking penalty on Nathan MacKinnon. This was what Canada needed, as McDavid threaded a pass to MacKinnon, who fired a missile short side to beat Saros once again. In one last attempt to keep the game going, Finland had challenged for a missed offside call that would've happened a minute before the goal. It was very close, but not close enough to overturn. With Finland back on the penalty kill for the last 30 seconds, Canada was able to hold on for the win. Shots were 17 to 6 this period, and when the final buzzer sounded, they had done enough. They were heading to the gold medal game.
The Gold Medal Game
This is what all of North America was waiting for: Team Canada against Team USA, fighting for the gold medal. In terms of having an entertaining hockey game, both teams didn't disappoint. The game started out rough for Canada. They struggled to make clean passes and get the puck out of their own end. This rough start was topped off by a goal from USA forward Matt Boldy, who managed to slip through both Cale Makar and Devon Toews and then beat Binnington with a shifty move. Canada took a penalty with 6 minutes left in the period, but killed it off. By the end of the period, shots were even at 8 apiece. After every Canadian had their nails bitten off from the previous two games, I think we all just started biting our fingers at this point.
Canada started the second period stronger, generating better passes and chances. Two penalties taken by Americans led to a 5-on-3, but Canada couldn't capitalize. Not long afterward, the Makar-Toews pairing made up for earlier mistakes by scoring the tying goal late in the second, as Makar beat the seemingly unbeatable Hellebuyck with a well-placed shot. We were heading to the third tied 1-1 with Canada outshooting Team USA 19-8 in the second. Things were looking good for Canada, but it didn't matter how good things looked if Canada didn't have more on the scoreboard than the States.
In the third period, Canada continued to fly. They were getting shots on net and not giving Team USA many grade-A opportunities. Devon Toews had the puck on his stick a foot from the goal line, and somehow the shot didn’t go in. I was completely stunned and had no idea what happened until the replay showed Connor Hellebuyck making one of the greatest paddle saves I've ever seen. Later, MacKinnon unfortunately missed a wide-open net that will haunt him for years. McDavid and Celebrini also each had a breakaway during this game. With all these chances, surely the red and white were bound to get another one. Team USA got away with having too-many-men on the ice, and not long after, Sam Bennett took a 4-minute high-sticking penalty. A missed power play chance and now four minutes of penalty kill felt like a big blow to Canada's momentum. Thankfully for them, Jack Hughes also took a high-sticking penalty to make it 4 on 4 for a bit. Both teams escaped that, and the clock wound down to zero. This game was headed to overtime.
Do I think an Olympic gold medal game should be decided by three-on-three overtime? Absolutely not. But that's how the rules were made, and that's how both teams had to play. Canada tried to push for one early, but it just didn't work. McDavid had a rush chance, but Hellebuyck stopped him, and Team USA took the puck the other way, leaving McDavid behind in the other end. Makar challenged the oncoming Jack Hughes, who poked the puck past him to Werenski for a three-on-one against MacKinnon. MacKinnon went to body Werenski, who stood him up and put the puck on a platter for the oncoming Jack Hughes, who had a wide-open lane and the perfect shot to beat Binnington. This one really stung. Team USA had just won gold.
Final Thoughts
I had no problem with Jordan Binnington's play this tournament. He was a good starter. But in the finals at the other end was Connor Hellebuyck, who was elite. Canada didn't lose because of Binnington, but the United States definitely won because of Hellebuyck. The days of Martin Brodeur, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Carey Price are over, and I'm very curious about what Canada's Olympic goaltending tandem will look like in the next tournament. Whether it's someone from this current group or a younger goalie that rises, like Sebastian Cossa, this is definitely a position with some uncertainty.
On defence, I feel this team could have used another puck-mover, especially after Morrissey's injury. More offence could've been added by taking Evan Bouchard or Jakob Chychrun, both players I was hopeful would make the team. I think management tried to play it a bit too safe by choosing mostly the same group that played at the 4 Nations tournament. Up front, the forwards looked good for the most part. The top guys were excellent. Celebrini, especially, was a pleasant surprise. We all knew he was exceptional at the NHL level, but I'm not sure how many predicted that he would be second in points in this entire tournament. Some players, like Reinhart and Hagel, didn't quite play up to their usual standards, but there's no doubt that they deserved to be on the team. I think selecting more youth for the team in the future would be a good idea, and I'm very excited for the likely appearances of Bedard and Schaefer at the next Olympics.
In the aftermath of the loss, many questions arise. Should they have brought a different defenceman? Should they have started a different goalie? Those questions only exist because they lost, though. Had one shot been a few inches the other way, those management decisions would be praised instead of criticized. I'm seeing very little complaining from American fans about how their team didn't bring Jason Robertson or Adam Fox or whoever, because they don't need to imagine what those players would've done to help them win, since they've already won with the players they brought. I think Team Canada's management and coaching did a great job, and I can see the reasoning behind every decision made before and during the tournament. I truly believe Canada was good enough to win this game. They carried the play and had more than enough chances. But in hockey, the better team doesn't always win. This team played well enough to win gold, but in the end, things didn't go their way. Not a single player on that team was happy about which medal they're bringing home. They didn't win silver. They lost gold.