The Analytics With Avery Blog

Team Canada Olympic Roster Projection

By Avery Doiron | December 29, 2025

Introduction

With the 2026 Winter Olympics taking place in less than two months and the Canadian roster set to be announced on Wednesday, December 31, I wanted to take a crack at constructing a roster of Canadian players that I believe gives Canada the best chance to win the gold medal.

To choose these players, I started with a pool of about 100 players. These players included those who participated in the 4 Nations tournament last season, were selected for the Team Canada orientation over the summer, and players who have been having impressive performances this season. I then narrowed it down to this roster of 25 (14 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 3 goalies) by choosing the biggest standouts. This is not simply a list of the most skilled Canadian players. Instead, this roster considers the specific roles players would be asked to play, along with factors such as chemistry, versatility, and experience. It is also not meant to be a perfect prediction of who Team Canada management will select, but rather who I think should be selected.

For each player selected, I provided a brief explanation as to why I chose them. After giving all my picks, I have a section where I go over some other players that were close to making my squad and a summary as to why they could be picked but didn't crack my roster. At the very end, you can see my full lineup visualized with my own custom NHL player cards, some ideas for the special teams and then a conclusion to wrap up my final thoughts.

Forwards

Previously Named:

These forwards were named to the team by management back in June. These are all players that will be on the team, whether I wanted them or not (though most of these players are no-brainers).

Connor McDavid – McDavid is the best hockey player in the world. He consistently delivers in high-pressure situations and scored the 4 Nations gold medal-winning goal. There is no real argument against his inclusion.

Nathan MacKinnon – MacKinnon is the second-best player in the world and another proven big-game performer. He is currently leading the NHL in goals and is a strong Hart Trophy candidate while driving the Colorado Avalanche toward a potential Presidents’ Trophy.

Sidney Crosby – Crosby is Captain Canada. He has won at every level of the game, including two Olympic gold medals and three Stanley Cups. At 38 years old, he is still performing at an elite offensive level. His leadership and chemistry with fellow Nova Scotian Nathan MacKinnon are further reasons as to why he deserves his spot.

Sam Reinhart – Reinhart is a back-to-back Stanley Cup champion, a point-per-game player, and a Selke-caliber forward. His scoring efficiency and defensive reliability make him an easy selection.

Brayden Point – Point is currently not playing at the level typically expected of him, but his past performance was enough to secure his spot. He has produced elite seasons, consistently elevated his play in the playoffs, and has a strong relationship with head coach Jon Cooper. I have no problem having him on the team, but if his play continues to be poor during the tournament, I could see him in a limited role or even in the press box.

Returning From the 4 Nations Roster:

These are the forwards that played on Canada's 4 Nations team, who I think have performed well enough to return to represent their country.

Mitch Marner - Marner is great both offensively and defensively, and can be an excellent player for both special teams. There have been questions about his performance in important games, mainly with the playoffs, but I think he performed quite well in the 4 Nations.

Brad Marchand - Marchand is having a very impressive offensive season. His defensive game has fallen off a bit, but he's still been an effective penalty killer. He'll bring a strong veteran presence and lots of experience to Team Canada's locker room.

Mark Stone - Stone is a player who, on a per-game basis, is one of the best in the league right now. The only problem is the number of games he's played. As long as he stays healthy leading up to and during the tournament, Stone is a player who could play anywhere in the lineup very effectively.

Brandon Hagel - Hagel has really emerged as a top offensive threat over the past few years.

Sam Bennett - Bennett probably wouldn't make this squad if I were just looking at his regular-season play, but when you factor in his performance in the 4 Nations as well as his role in the Panthers' past three playoff runs, which includes him winning a Conn Smythe, Bennett has proven that he's a big-game player. He's the perfect fit for a top six physical role.

Newcomers:

These forwards were not a part of the 4 Nations team last season, but I believe they've played well enough since then to warrant a spot on the Olympic team.

Macklin Celebrini - Celebrini has been so dynamic this season. His youth and inexperience may sway some to not include him on this roster, but I think he's just been so excellent that you have to include him. Even if he has a limited role, I think having this experience in preparation for his inclusion in the next Olympics is valuable enough.

Nick Suzuki - Suzuki has cemented himself as an elite two-way center. He's young and has continued to improve every year since he came into the league. His points per game pace every year has gone up and his defense has been impressive as he's been matched up against some of the best players in the NHL.

Bo Horvat - Horvat has always been an underrated player, and this season more people are starting to see how talented he is. Along with his offensive skill, Horvat has been one of the best faceoff takers in the league, which is a valuable skill for this tournament, where possession can play such a big factor.

Tom Wilson - I really debated having Wilson on this team, but in the end, I just had to add him. He's having a great season production-wise and plays a physical game that will be useful against some of the other hard-hitting teams in this tournament. He just really has to keep his game clean and avoid taking any unnecessary penalties or getting suspended. If he can do that, Wilson will be a valuable player for the team; if he can't, he could end up being more of a hindrance.

The Defensemen

Previously Named:

Like the forwards, last June, team management named a defenseman to the team, so he will have to be on my roster.

Cale Makar - Makar is the best defenseman in the NHL and another no-brainer for this team. He's won a Cup, the Norris several times, and is currently leading the league in points by a defenseman.

Returning From the 4 Nations Roster:

These are the defensemen that played on Canada's 4 Nations team, who I think have performed well enough to return to represent their country.

Devon Toews - Toews has been Makar's D partner for quite some time now and the two have great chemistry that has produced elite results. This season isn't Toews' best, but I think it's still an easy choice to bring him and continue to stick him beside Makar on Canada's top D pair.

Josh Morrissey - Morrissey has been a consistent top offensive defenseman for quite some time now and has recently stepped up his defensive side of the game as well. I think he's likely Canada's second-best defenseman on this team.

Shea Theodore - Theodore has been a consistent top line defenseman for some time now. He can play on both the left and the right, is good at both ends of the ice, and can play on either of the special teams. He's a versatile player that I think Canada could use.

Colton Parayko - Parayko was Canada's defensive-minded D man at the 4 Nations and I think he did a great job at shutting down other teams' top players. I have no problem bringing him back so that he can play a similar role at the Olympics.

Newcomers:

These defensemen were not a part of the 4 Nations team last season, but I believe they've played well enough since then to warrant a spot on the Olympic team.

Jakob Chychrun - Chychrun was born in the USA, but is a dual citizen thanks to his Canadian father and has previously chosen to represent Canada. This is excellent news for Canadians because Chychrun's play has been unreal this season. At the time of writing this, he is tied for first in goals in the NHL and has been unreal offensively while having a respectable defensive game.

Evan Bouchard - Bouchard is for sure a top offensive defenseman in the NHL. I don't think his overall defensive play is as bad as many people think it is, but he has been known to make some big blunders from time to time. I think he likely starts the tournament in the press box, but could be brought in if the team needs some more offense or if one of the guys on the power play goes down with an injury.

Adam Pelech - Pelech may be the most surprising player I have on my roster, but I think his defensive game is maybe the best in the NHL. I would love to see him on the team as another potential shutdown guy for some of the other countries' top players.

The Goalies

Returning From the 4 Nations Roster:

Jordan Binnington - Binnington has not been having a great season, but he is a Cup winner and after his performance in the 4 Nations, it's tough to leave him off this team. I think you give him a game or two in the round robin and if he doesn't perform well, then maybe rely on the other goaltenders.

Newcomers:

Logan Thompson - Thompson should have arguably made Canada's 4 Nations roster last season and he's made sure to leave no questions on his inclusion for the Olympic team with his play. Apparently, some members of management don't like Thompson, but I think there's no better way to mend a hurt relationship than a gold medal, and I think Thompson is the guy to go with.

Darcy Kuemper - Kuemper has really bounced back the past two seasons after a disastrous 2023-2024 season. He was a Vezina nominee last season and has continued his great play this season. He's also won the Cup as the starting goalie a few years ago, so he's played in high-pressure games before.

Who Missed Out

Not Returning From the 4 Nations Roster:

Anthony Cirelli - Cirelli has a strong case to return to this team due to his defensive play and connection to Jon Cooper. Cirelli is versatile and a good fit for a bottom six role on this team, but I think Nick Suzuki can fill his role just as well and provide a bit more offense.

Seth Jarvis - Jarvis is one of my favourite players in the NHL, so it was tough to leave him off. He's actually been producing well this season, but his defensive play hasn't been as effective as in previous seasons, which is why he was previously chosen for the 4 Nations.

Travis Konecny - Konecny didn't have the biggest role during his time at the 4 Nations tournament. I didn't disagree with his inclusion in that tournament, but I think since then his play hasn't been any better, whereas other players' play has improved.

Drew Doughty - Doughty has more than enough experience, but his play hasn't been anything spectacular this season. I think there's some upside to bringing some of the younger guys who have been performing better than him this season.

Thomas Harley - Harley is a player in a similar situation to Jarvis. I wanted to have on this team because he is such a young and exciting player, and I think he's still growing into a truly elite defenseman. His play this season has taken a bit of a step back and unfortunately for him, with my team, I want to take the best players that are currently playing at their best.

Travis Sanheim - Sanheim hasn't exactly wowed me this season. I think he's an underrated D-man for sure, but his inclusion on the 4 Nations team was still a bit of a shocker to me. I think the defenders I have selected are better overall selections.

Adin Hill - Hill has unfortunately spent most of this season injured and in the games that he has played, he hasn't been too effective with a 0.888 save percentage. I believe Hill is better than his numbers suggest, but to make this team, you have to be proving it.

Sam Montembeault - Montembeault just hasn't really been good this season, no way around it. Out of the 68 goalies that have played at least 8 games this season, Montembeault ranks dead last in save percentage with a 0.857. This is not close to good enough for making Team Canada.

Other Potential Players:

Connor Bedard - Bedard has been electric offensively and has really shown that he's an elite player. I really wanted to include him on this team, but I had my top six set, and his poor defensive play made him unsuitable for a top six role. Along with his recent injury, I had to have Bedard (just barely) on the outside looking in.

Mark Scheifele - Scheifele is in a similar boat as Bedard. His point totals have been unreal this season, but I just can't see him playing in a top six role, and as mentioned, I already like my top six. I could see him being brought as an extra to replace someone in the top six if an injury occurs, but as it stands, I think Scheifele is also not making the team.

John Tavares - Tavares has been such a consistent player over his career. I think he could bring leadership to this roster, especially since he's played in the Olympics before back in 2014. There are only so many roster spots though, and I'm not sure if Tavares is quite at the level to earn one of those spots.

Zach Hyman & Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins aren't quite at the level that some of these other guys are, but what they do have going for them is their chemistry with McDavid, which they both have lots of. I could see one of them making the team just to be stuck on McDavid's wing for the tournament.

Matthew Schaefer - Schaefer's play has been excellent this season and I almost included him on this roster. With not even 40 games of NHL experience under his belt, I'd like to see a little more experience before picking him for such a big event.

MacKenzie Weegar - Weegar has had impressive seasons in the past and is a great two-way defender. His play this season hasn't been as good, but if his play was at its peak, he'd have a very strong argument for making this team.

Brandon Montour - Montour is one of the better defenders at getting pucks to the net. I think he plays a similar style of game to Chychrun and since I already have Chychrun who's having an incredible season, Montour just doesn't make the cut.

Noah Dobson - Dobson has proven to be a top offensive defenseman in the league, but I believe all of the defensemen I chose for offense are more effective than Dobson and he doesn't quite have the defensive game that might be needed in this tournament.

Aaron Ekblad - Ekblad is a great defenseman who's been a key player on the back-to-back Cup-winning Panthers. I just think injuries have brought him a tier below the guys who are making the roster.

Mackenzie Blackwood & Scott Wedgewood - Both of Colorado's goaltenders have been having excellent seasons. It was between these two and Kuemper for that last goalie spot. What gave Kuemper the slight edge was his experience and the fact that these guys might be having their numbers inflated by an impressive Colorado Avalanche team in front of them.

Jake Allen - Allen has been having a solid season. I don't think it's been a Team Canada Olympic-quality season, but I thought he deserved a mention as one of Canada's better current goaltenders.

The Final Roster

With all that said, here is my final Team Canada roster (these cards were last updated on December 24, 2025):

Forwards:

Macklin Celebrini Connor McDavid Sam Reinhart
Nathan MacKinnon Sidney Crosby Mark Stone
Brandon Hagel Nick Suzuki Mitch Marner
Sam Bennett Bo Horvat Tom Wilson

Defensemen:

Devon Toews Cale Makar
Josh Morrissey Shea Theodore
Jakob Chychrun Colton Parayko

Goalies:

Logan Thompson
Jordan Binnington

Extras:

Brayden Point Brad Marchand Evan Bouchard Adam Pelech Darcy Kuemper

Summary

The line combinations shown above are also not meant to be exact. As with any short international tournament, I would expect experimentation and in-tournament adjustments based on performance, matchups, and health. I think the composition of my lines is a good starting point. All of the lines can provide plenty of offense, the top six especially, the third line could be a good shutdown line, and the fourth line would be a physical presence on the ice.

On defense, Makar and Toews have to be together due to their chemistry and proven play and I think the other two pairings are very well balanced. For my extra skaters, I have Point to fill in as a potential top six role, Marchand as a top six replacement and great locker room veteran, and then Bouchard and Pelech to take on more offensive and defensive roles respectively if needed. Overall, this roster has a good mix of offensively and defensively minded players.

As for the special teams, there's no shortage of players who can play on the power play and with my roster, I made sure to include players who would be great on the penalty kill. Here is what the special teams could look like:

Power Play Units:

McDavid - Crosby - Reinhart

MacKinnon - Makar

Celebrini - Horvat - Stone

Chychrun - Marner

Penalty Kill Units:

Suzuki - Marner

Toews - Parayko

Reinhart - Stone

Morrissey - Theodore

For the goalies, I wouldn't overthink it. I think Thompson has been having the best regular season, so I'd start him until he has a bad game and maybe give Binnington a game in the round robin to see if we get regular season Binnington or 4 Nations Binnington. Kuemper could also play a game, but I wouldn't keep switching between goalies. To medal, the team would only play five or six games, so if a goalie is hot, just play them for the majority of the tournament.

Conclusion

At the end of the day, building a roster for a short international tournament like the Olympics is about more than simply selecting the most talented players on paper. Ice time is limited, roles are specialized, and every player needs to be able to contribute without disrupting team structure. This projected roster prioritizes fit, versatility, and experience while still maintaining elite top-end skill across all positions.

Up front, Canada’s biggest strength is its depth. The top six features some of the best offensive players in the world, while the bottom six is built around defensive responsibility, physicality, and playoff-proven competitiveness. On defense, the group balances elite puck-moving ability with strong shutdown options. In goal, while there may not be a clear-cut superstar, the trio provides a mix of recent performance, experience, and big-game pedigree that should be more than sufficient in this short tournament.

Of course, this roster is not meant to be a perfect prediction of what Hockey Canada will ultimately decide. That said, this group represents what I believe gives Canada the best chance to win gold in 2026: a team built not just on talent, but on chemistry, role clarity, and the ability to perform when the games matter most.