The Analytics With Avery Blog
Do NHL Teams Need to Lose to Win? Part 1
By Avery Doiron | September 9, 2025
Introduction
Barkov. Stamkos. Crosby. Toews. What do these players have in common? These are all players who captained their NHL teams to multiple Stanley Cups. How did those winning teams acquire these players, you might wonder? They did it by losing, which may sound counterintuitive, but in the NHL, it can be a strategic move. Let me explain.
After each NHL season, a draft lottery takes place, where the teams that performed the worst receive the best odds of picking high in the draft order and potentially securing a franchise-altering player. While the rules have changed over the years, as of the most recent draft lottery rule set, two lottery winners are selected. The bottom 16 teams in the NHL all have the chance to move up 10 spots in the draft order, meaning no team can fall more than two spots in the draft order. So if a team finishes last in the standings by the end of the season, they are guaranteed a top-3 pick in the NHL Entry Draft.
When a team's management knows its playoff chances are slim, they may decide to hold off on competing and trade away roster players for future assets like draft picks or prospects. Sometimes this happens before the season starts, other times at the trade deadline. Doing this for several years in a row, known as rebuilding, gives the team a chance to accrue assets and draft multiple young stars, developing them together as the team deliberately shifts focus from competing for championships in the short term to building a stronger roster for the future.
One specific part of rebuilding is the act of tanking, in which teams, while often not admitting it, actively try to be worse. By placing low in the standings, a team will have the best chances at a high draft pick and more often than not, the highest chance for a future elite player that could alter the course of the franchise. My goal in this two-part blog was to find out how much tanking actually pays off.
Methodology
I looked for potential tanking periods going as far back as the 1998–1999 season (the first season that 30 teams participated in the entry draft). Then, I focused on the team results from 2008–2009 onward (10 years after the earliest tanking period, to give the teams that tanked around 1998–1999 a chance for their drafted players to develop).
To define what counted as the tanking period for a team, I came up with this criteria:
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The tanking period must be at least 3 seasons long
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The tanking period must have at least one bottom-3 finish
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The tanking period must start and end with a bottom-5 finish
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The tanking period must not include two seasons in a row without a bottom-10 finish
For each team, I identified if they had a tanking period, which players were acquired with their lottery picks during that tanking period, and the results these players had with the team. For the purposes of this study, we'll only be looking at the top draft picks that teams acquire through tanking, and not the accompanying trades and moves that occur during a rebuild, as often the high draft picks are the franchise-defining pieces that teams are looking for when tanking.
Note that the player's results are how the player performed during their time with that team. Sam Reinhart was just a solid top-line forward during his time with the Sabres, but became the elite player he is now after he was traded to the Panthers, so for the Sabres, he'll be labeled as a top-line player. The same goes for players who have more potential. Connor Bedard might be one of the best players in the league someday, but as of this point, the results he has performed with the Blackhawks are those of a top-line player, not necessarily elite (yet). Options for the player results are elite, top-line, middle-line, bottom-line, fringe, non-NHL player, and prospect (too early to tell).
Along with the player results, I'll also be looking at team results, mainly whether or not they reached the ultimate goal of winning a Cup. I'll classify whether or not the team tanked, whether or not the team won, and what the team's current status is as of the end of last season (to give context to the cases where some teams may not have won yet with their core built through tanking, but could do so in the near future). In part 2, after going over every NHL team, I'll also get into some of the numbers surrounding the effectiveness of tanking. With all that laid out, let's look at the first half of the league and see which teams had a successful tank, which teams saw it fail, and how non-tanking teams fared by comparison.
Anaheim Ducks
Tanking Seasons: 2019-2020 - 2023-2024
| Season | Team's League Finish | Team's Draft Pick | Pick Result | Player Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-2020 | 27th (5th worst) | 6th overall | Jamie Drysdale (D) | Middle-line player, played 4 seasons, was traded in a package for Cutter Gauthier (F, too early to tell) |
| 2020-2021 | 30th (2nd worst) | 3rd overall | Mason McTavish (F) | Top-line player, played 3 seasons, has potential to grow |
| 2021-2022 | 23rd (10th worst) | 10th overall | Pavel Mintyukov (D) | Middle-line player, played 2 seasons, has potential to grow |
| 2022-2023 | 32nd (1st worst) | 2nd overall | Leo Carlsson (F) | Top-line player, played 2 seasons, has potential to grow |
| 2023-2024 | 30th (3rd worst) | 3rd overall | Beckett Sennecke (F) | Prospect, played 0 seasons |
Cup Wins: 0
Seasons After Tanking Before Winning First Cup: N/A
Summary: The Ducks' Cup win in 2007 was just outside the window I was looking at, and while they had some very strong years in the early to mid-2010s, they just couldn't go all the way again, eventually leading to one of the NHL's most recent tanking teams. In the years following two conference final losses in 2015 and 2017, the Ducks have faced some challenging times, going from a top-2 team in the Pacific to a consistent bottom-3 team in the division.
It could end up being worth it, as they drafted three top-3 picks in the early 2020s. 3rd overall pick Mason McTavish has shown some top-line upside with more room to grow. 2nd overall pick Leo Carlsson has lots of potential to be a star player for the Ducks, with many predicting him for a major breakout this upcoming season. Lastly, Beckett Sennecke has been viewed as a reach at 3rd overall by many, but could blossom into an offensive threat in Anaheim. While it's too soon to tell how this young core will perform over their careers, if they all hit their ceilings, Anaheim could have a dangerous offense over the next few years.
Classification: Did not tank/now exiting a tank, did not win, non-playoff team.
Boston Bruins
Tanking Seasons: N/A
Cup Wins: 1 (2010-2011)
Seasons After Tanking Before Winning First Cup: N/A
Summary: For a while, it seemed like the Boston Bruins didn't know how to be bad. They made the playoffs in 14 out of the 17 years that I looked, with them hoisting the Cup in 2011. The highest Bruin draft pick during this period was 5th overall in 2006, which they acquired through the lockout lottery. They selected Phil Kessel, who had a solid first two seasons and then an excellent third season before being traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs for two first round picks and a second round pick. After a dreadful next season by the Leafs, the 2010 first round pick that the Bruins received was used to select forward Tyler Seguin 2nd overall. The very next season is when the Bruins would lift the Cup with rookie Seguin making contributions in the final two rounds.
Along with their Cup win, the Bruins also experienced two Cup final losses and multiple early playoff exits, with the team regressing to a bottom-5 finish in their most recent seasons. Could the addition of a franchise player have helped them enough to get them past the hump a few more times? Possibly, but it's hard to argue with the success the Bruins have had over the years. I doubt fans or management would have asked for many changes to the 21st-century Bruins.
Classification: Did not tank, did win, non-playoff team.
Buffalo Sabres
Tanking Seasons: 2013-2014 - 2020-2021
| Season | Team's League Finish | Team's Draft Pick | Pick Result | Player Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-2014 | 30th (1st worst) | 2nd overall | Sam Reinhart (F) | Top-line player, played 6 seasons, was traded for a first round pick and Devon Levi (G, too early to tell) |
| 2014-2015 | 30th (1st worst) | 2nd overall | Jack Eichel (F) | Elite player, played 6 seasons, was traded for Peyton Krebs (F, middle-line player), Alex Tuch (F, top-line player), a first round pick, and a second round pick |
| 2015-2016 | 23rd (8th worst) | 8th overall | Alex Nylander (F) | Fringe player, played parts of 3 seasons, was traded for Henri Jokiharju (D, bottom-line player) |
| 2016-2017 | 26th (5th worst) | 8th overall | Casey Mittelstadt (F) | Middle-line player, played 7 seasons, was traded for Bowen Byram (D, middle-line player) |
| 2017-2018 | 31st (1st worst) | 1st overall | Rasmus Dahlin (D) | Elite player, played 7 seasons, current captain for 2 seasons |
| 2018-2019 | 27th (5th worst) | 7th overall | Dylan Cozens (F) | Top-line player, played 5 seasons, was packaged in a trade for Josh Norris (F, top-line player) and Jacob Bernard-Docker (D, bottom-line player) |
| 2019-2020 | 25th (7th worst) | 8th overall | Jack Quinn (F) | Middle-line player, played 4 seasons, has potential to grow |
| 2020-2021 | 31st (1st worst) | 1st overall | Owen Power (D) | Top-line player, played 4 seasons, has potential to grow |
Cup Wins: 0
Seasons After Tanking Before Winning First Cup: N/A
Summary: The Sabres are one of the best examples of a team that committed to a full-scale tank and still hasn’t seen it pay off with playoff success, let alone a Stanley Cup. From 2013–2014 through 2020–2021, Buffalo bottomed out repeatedly, finishing dead last in the league three times and drafting in the top-2 four times. They walked away with high-end talent in Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and several other first-rounders who have gone on to become NHL regulars. On paper, it looked like the start of a franchise-altering core.
The problem was that very little of that group actually stuck together. Reinhart and Eichel, two of the core pieces of the beginning of their rebuild, were eventually traded after years of organizational dysfunction. While those deals did bring back solid pieces, Buffalo essentially reset their timeline by moving on from the players they originally tanked for. In terms of their more recent tanking, Dahlin has become an elite cornerstone on their blue line, and Owen Power is shaping up to be a very solid first liner, but besides these two, only Jack Quinn remains on the team out of the 9 total tanking-induced draft picks.
Classification: Did tank, did not win, non-playoff team.
Calgary Flames
Tanking Seasons: N/A
Cup Wins: 0
Seasons After Tanking Before Winning First Cup: N/A
Summary: The closest the Flames have had to a tanking period was from the 2012-2013 season to the 2015-2016 season, only missing my definition by not having a bottom-3 finish. Over this time, they selected Sean Monahan at 6th overall in 2013, Sam Bennett at 4th overall in 2014, and Matthew Tkachuk at 6th overall in 2016. Although each of those players were excellent in Calgary, all of them eventually were traded away. Had the Flames tanked a little harder during this time, they could've had higher chances of acquiring MacKinnon, Barkov, Draisaitl, McDavid, Eichel, or Matthews, all of whom were top-3 picks in the previously mentioned drafts and could have altered the course of the franchise.
Over the possible Cup-winning window, the Flames made the playoffs 7 out of the 17 years, with the most wins that the Flames have had in a playoff run being 5. With the current roster that the Flames have, it's tough to see them truly contending to make the Cup finals, but they also have enough talent to not end up in the basement of the standings. A true star could really turn this team around. Projected 2027 1st overall pick and Calgary native Landon DuPont could end up being just that should the Flames decide to tear it down and commit to a true tank.
Classification: Did tank, did not win, bubble playoff team.
Carolina Hurricanes
Tanking Seasons: N/A
Cup Wins: 0
Seasons After Tanking Before Winning First Cup: N/A
Summary: The Hurricanes never went through a true tanking period under my definition. From the 2012-2013 season to the 2017-2018 season, they missed the playoffs five years in a row, but they were never quite bad enough to consistently land at the very bottom of the standings. Instead, Carolina hovered in the middle-to-lower tier, often finishing in the bottom-10 but never in the bottom-3. That meant they picked up some solid young talent in the draft, but not necessarily the kind of game changers that can alter a playoff series. Their highest draft pick came in 2018 when they moved up from 11th to 2nd overall in the draft lottery, drafting Andrei Svechnikov, who's been a consistent top-line player for them.
Despite that, Carolina built a strong foundation through smart scouting, player development, and asset management. Combined with some solid trades and the eventual arrival of Rod Brind’Amour behind the bench, the Hurricanes transformed into a perennial playoff team without ever truly tearing it down. They haven’t won a Stanley Cup yet, but their rise shows that there are other paths to contention by avoiding the long, painful tank and instead rebuilding on the fly without completely bottoming out. They're currently in a strong contending window, but without that true franchise player, will it be enough for them to win a Cup?
Classification: Did not tank, did not win, contender.
Chicago Blackhawks
Tanking Seasons: 2003-2004 - 2006-2007
| Season | Team's League Finish | Team's Draft Pick | Pick Result | Player Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-2004 | 29th (2nd worst) | 3rd overall | Cam Barker (D) | Bottom-line player, played 5 seasons, was traded for Kim Johnsson (D, fringe player) and Nick Leddy (D, middle-line player), who contributed to the 2012-2013 Cup win |
| 2004-2005 | N/A (lockout year) | 7th overall | Jack Skille (D) | Bottom-line player, played 5 seasons, was traded in a package for Alexander Salák (G, non-NHL player) and Michael Frolík (F, bottom-line player), who contributed to the 2012-2013 Cup win |
| 2005-2006 | 28th (3rd worst) | 3rd overall | Jonathan Toews (F) | Elite player, played 15 seasons, captain for 15 seasons, won a Selke, a Conn Smythe, and 3 Cups, left in free agency due to health |
| 2006-2007 | 26th (5th worst) | 1st overall | Patrick Kane (F) | Elite player, played 16 seasons, won a Calder, a Hart, an Art Ross, a Ted Lindsay, a Conn Smythe, and 3 Cups, was traded for picks and Cooper Zech (D, non-NHL player) |
2022-2023 - Present
| Season | Team's League Finish | Team's Draft Pick | Pick Result | Player Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-2023 | 30th (3rd worst) | 1st overall | Connor Bedard (F) | Top-line forward, played 3 seasons, has potential to grow |
| 2023-2024 | 31st (2nd worst) | 2nd overall | Artyom Levshunov (D) | Prospect, played part of 1 season |
| 2024-2025 | 31st (2nd worst) | 3rd overall | Anton Frondell (F) | Prospect, played 0 seasons |
Cup Wins: 3 (2009-2010, 2012-2013, 2014-2015)
Seasons After Tanking Before Winning First Cup: 3
Summary: The Blackhawks provide one of the clearest examples of tanking paying off in NHL history. After years near the bottom of the standings in the early 2000s, Chicago landed back-to-back franchise cornerstones in Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. While earlier high picks like Cam Barker and Jack Skille never became stars, they were eventually flipped for players who made smaller but still meaningful contributions to cup wins. With Kane and Toews leading the charge, supported by smart trades and strong drafting beyond the lottery, Chicago ended a nearly 50-year Cup drought and went on to win three championships in six seasons.
The Blackhawks now find themselves in a second tanking cycle. After tearing down their previous core, they landed another potential franchise-altering pick in Connor Bedard. Alongside Bedard, they’ve added more blue-chip prospects in Artyom Levshunov in 2024 and Anton Frondell in 2025. While it’s far too early to tell if this new group will reach the heights of the Toews-Kane era, the strategy is similar to the one that eventually led to three cups. The second tank is underway, and it's possible that Bedard and Frondell are the next coming of Kane and Toews and could lead the Blackhawks back to the promised land.
Classification: Did tank/now tanking, did win, non-playoff team.
Colorado Avalanche
Tanking Seasons: 2008-2009 – 2016-2017
| Season | Team's League Finish | Team's Draft Pick | Pick Result | Player Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-2009 | 28th (3rd worst) | 3rd overall | Matt Duchene (F) | Top-line player, played 8 seasons, traded for a package that included Samuel Girard (D, middle-line player) and the pick that would be used 4th overall to draft Bowen Byram (D, middle-line player), two key contributors to the Cup win |
| 2009-2010 | 12th (19th worst) | 17th overall | Joey Hishon (F) | Fringe player, played 1 season, left in free agency to the KHL |
| 2010-2011 | 29th (2nd worst) | 2nd overall | Gabriel Landeskog (F) | Top-line player, played 11 seasons, current captain for 13 seasons, won a Calder and a Cup |
| 2011-2012 | 20th (11th worst) | 11th overall | Traded for Semyon Varlamov (G) | Top-line player, played 8 seasons, left in free agency |
| 2012-2013 | 29th (2nd worst) | 1st overall | Nathan MacKinnon (F) | Elite player, played 12 seasons with the Avs, won a Calder, a Hart, a Ted Lindsay, and a Cup |
| 2013-2014 | 3rd (28th worst) | 23rd overall | Conner Bleackley (F) | Non-NHL player, did not sign and re-entered the draft |
| 2014-2015 | 21st (10th worst) | 10th overall | Mikko Rantanen (F) | Elite player, played 10 seasons, won a cup, was traded for Martin Necas (F, top-line player), Jack Drury (F, bottom-line player), and picks |
| 2015-2016 | 21st (10th worst) | 10th overall | Tyson Jost (F) | Bottom-line player, played 6 seasons, was traded for Nico Sturm (F, bottom-line player), who contributed to the Avs Cup win |
| 2016-2017 | 30th (1st worst) | 4th overall | Cale Makar (D) | Elite player, played 6 seasons, won a Calder, a Cup, Conn Smythe, and 2 Norris' |
Cup Wins: 1 (2021-2022)
Seasons Between Tanking and First Cup: 5
Summary: It's hard to define a distinct tanking period for the Colorado Avalanche. They never had two years in a row where they picked in the top-five, but they managed to have 4 top-five picks in a span of nine years. If we go by my definition, then from the 2008-2009 season to the 2016-2017 season would technically be their tanking period, even though they placed 3rd in the league in the 2013-2014 season in big thanks to Semyon Varlamov's near Vezina-winning season. Even if we exclude all their non-top-5 picks, the Avs still did very well in drafting Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon, and Cale Makar.
After their historically bad 2016-2017 season, the Avs haven't looked back, making the playoffs in each of the 8 seasons since then. Their biggest accomplishment came in 2022 when they won it all. Matt Duchene was previously traded for a package that led to the Avs landing two key pieces for their blue line in Samuel Girard and (the pick used for) Bowen Byram. Their former high picks, Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon, and Cale Makar, along with Mikko Rantanen, another elite player they drafted during their years of pain, led the charge to a dominant Cup win.
Classification: Did tank, did win, playoff team.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Tanking Seasons: 2001-2002 - 2011-2012
| Season | Team's League Finish | Team's Draft Pick | Pick Result | Player Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001-2002 | 29th (2nd worst) | 3rd overall | Traded for the 1st overall pick to select Rick Nash (F) | Top-line player, played 9 seasons, won a Rocket, was traded in a package for Brandon Dubinsky (F, middle-line player), Artem Anisimov (F, middle-line player), Tim Erixon (D, fringe player), and a first round pick |
| 2002-2003 | 28th (3rd worst) | 4th overall | Nikolai Zherdev (F) | Middle-line player, played 4 seasons, was traded with Dan Fritsche for Christian Backman (D, fringe player) and Fedor Tyutin (D, middle-line player) |
| 2003-2004 | 27th (4th worst) | 4th overall | Traded for the 8th overall pick to select Alexandre Picard (F) and 59th overall pick to select Kyle Wharton (D) | Alexandre Picard was a fringe player who played 5 seasons, and Kyle Wharton was a non-NHL player who played 0 seasons |
| 2004-2005 | N/A (lockout season) | 6th overall | Gilbert Brule (F) | Fringe player, played 3 seasons, was traded for Raffi Torres (F, bottom-line player) |
| 2005-2006 | 25th (6th worst) | 6th overall | Derick Brassard (F) | Middle-line player, played 6 seasons, was traded in a package for Marian Gaborik (F, middle-line player), Blake Parlett (D, non-NHL player), and Steven Delisle (D, non-NHL player) |
| 2006-2007 | 24th (7th worst) | 7th overall | Jakub Voracek (F) | Middle-line player, played 3 seasons, was traded with a first round pick and a third round pick for Jeff Carter (F, top-line player) |
| 2007-2008 | 25th (6th worst) | 6th overall | Nikita Filatov (F) | Fringe player, played 3 seasons, was traded for a third round pick |
| 2008-2009 | 16th (15th worst) | 21st overall | John Moore (D) | Fringe player, played 3 seasons, was traded in the previously mentioned Derick Brassard package |
| 2009-2010 | 27th (4th worst) | 4th overall | Ryan Johansen (F) | Top-line player, played 5 seasons, was traded for Seth Jones (D, top-line player) |
| 2010-2011 | 24th (7th worst) | 8th overall | Traded with Jakub Voracek and a third round pick for F, Jeff Carter (F) | Top-line player, played 2 seasons, was traded for Jack Johnson (D, middle-line player) and a first round pick |
| 2011-2012 | 30th (1st worst) | 2nd overall | Ryan Murray (D) | Middle-line player, played 7 seasons, was traded for a fifth round pick |
2020-2021 - 2023-2024
| Season | Team's League Finish | Team's Draft Pick | Pick Result | Player Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-2021 | 28th (4th worst) | 5th overall | Kent Johnson (F) | Top-line player, played 4 seasons, has potential to grow |
| 2021-2022 | 21st (12th worst) | 6th overall | David Jirichek (D) | Fringe player, played 3 seasons, traded with a fifth round pick for Damon Hunt (D, fringe player), a first round pick, a second round pick, and a fourth round pick |
| 2022-2023 | 31st (2nd worst) | 3rd overall | Adam Fantilli (F) | Middle-line player, played 2 seasons, has potential to grow |
| 2023-2024 | 29th (4th worst) | 4th overall | Cayden Lindstrom (F) | Prospect, played 0 seasons |
Cup Wins: 0
Seasons After Tanking Before Winning First Cup: N/A
Summary: The Blue Jackets have had two distinct tanking phases in their history. The first came during their early expansion years, from 2001 through 2012, where they routinely finished near the bottom of the league and collected several high draft picks. While they landed some quality players like Rick Nash, Jakub Voracek, and Ryan Johansen, the majority of their picks either failed to pan out or were traded away for minimal return. The Jeff Carter trade exemplifies the Jackets’ struggles. They paid a steep price to acquire him, only for him to leave quickly, forcing the team into yet another reset.
The second tanking phase began after the 2020–21 season, adding promising prospects such as Kent Johnson, Adam Fantilli, and Cayden Lindstrom. The organization has yet to turn the corner. Poor development results, underwhelming draft lottery luck, and questionable trades have stalled progress. Columbus has never advanced past the second round of the playoffs, and their long stretches of losing seasons reflect an organization that has not been able to successfully convert high draft capital into long-term success. The Blue Jackets look to get into the playoff hunt with their new core that includes some exciting young players.
Classification: Did tank/now exiting a tank, did not win, bubble playoff team.
Dallas Stars
Tanking Seasons: N/A
Cup Wins: 0
Seasons After Tanking Before Winning First Cup: N/A
Summary: The Stars haven't gone through a tanking phase in recent history. Their lowest finish was 24th in the 2016-2017 season, and with some draft lottery luck, they were able to land Elite defenseman Miro Heiskanen at 3rd overall. Despite the lack of tanking, the Stars have managed to put together some very competitive teams. They made it to the Cup finals in 2020 and made the Conference finals in the past 3 years. Strong drafting and smart trades have allowed the Stars to perform so well in the regular season and early rounds of the playoffs.
In a similar case to the Hurricanes, it looks like Dallas has done everything right, but they just can't do enough to become the Cup champs. They look like they will be a perennial regular-season threat for the foreseeable future and should have no problem making the playoffs. Once in the postseason, however, will the combination of veteran players and young guns be enough for this team to join the list of cup winners that avoided tanking?
Classification: Did not tank, did not win, contender.
Detroit Red Wings
Tanking Seasons: 2016-2017 - 2020-2021
| Season | Team's League Finish | Team's Draft Pick | Pick Result | Player Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-2018 | 27th (5th worst) | 6th overall | Filip Zadina (F) | Bottom-line player, played 5 seasons, left in free agency |
| 2018-2019 | 28th (6th worst) | 6th overall | Moritz Seider (D) | Top-line player, played 4 seasons, won a Calder, has potential to grow |
| 2019-2020 | 31st (1st worst) | 4th overall | Lucas Raymond (F) | Top-line player, played 4 seasons, has potential to grow |
| 2020-2021 | 27th (5th worst) | 6th overall | Simon Edvinsson (D) | Middle-line player, played 3 seasons, has potential to grow |
Cup Wins: 0
Seasons After Tanking Before Winning First Cup: N/A
Summary: Detroit entered a rebuild after their remarkable 25-year playoff streak ended in 2016. From 2017–2021, they consistently finished in the bottom third of the league, hoping to stockpile elite young talent. Unfortunately, the draft lottery was not kind to them. Even after finishing in last place in 2019–20, they slipped to 4th and missed out on the top-3 picks. Still, the Wings have managed to add some high-end pieces. Moritz Seider looks like he'll be an elite defenseman, and Lucas Raymond has emerged as a legitimate top-line winger. Simon Edvinsson has shown flashes as a strong two-way defender, though Filip Zadina, once considered a high—end prospect, never panned out and left for nothing.
Their streak of making the playoffs ended and a new streak of not missing the playoffs has started, which the Red Wings look to break soon. While the rebuild has produced a foundation, Detroit might still be wanting a true franchise piece to carry them back to contender status. Should Detroit have held out with the tank a little longer instead of rushing the rebuild with veteran signings? We will see as they attempt to continue their climb back to the top.
Classification: Did tank, did not win, bubble playoff team.
Edmonton Oilers
Tanking Seasons: 2009-2010 - 2015-2016
| Season | Team's League Finish | Team's Draft Pick | Pick Result | Player Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-2010 | 30th (1st worst) | 1st overall | Taylor Hall (F) | Top-line player, played 6 seasons, was traded for Adam Larsson (D, middle-line player) |
| 2010-2011 | 30th (1st worst) | 1st overall | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F) | Top-line player, played 14 seasons |
| 2011-2012 | 29th (2nd worst) | 1st overall | Nail Yakupov (F) | Middle-line player, played 4 seasons, was traded for Zach Pochiro (F, non-NHL player) and a third round pick |
| 2012-2013 | 24th (7th worst) | 7th overall | Darnell Nurse (D) | Top-line player, played 10 seasons |
| 2013-2014 | 28th (3rd worst) | 3rd overall | Leon Draisaitl (F) | Elite player, played 11 seasons, won a Hart, an Art Ross, a Ted Lindsay and a Rocket |
| 2014-2015 | 28th (3rd worst) | 1st overall | Connor McDavid (F) | Elite player, played 10 seasons, won 3 Harts, 4 Art Ross', 4 Ted Lindsays, a Rocket, and a Conn Smythe |
| 2015-2016 | 29th (2nd worst) | 4th overall | Jesse Puljujarvi (F) | Bottom-line player, played 6 seasons, was traded for Patrick Puistola (F, non-NHL player) |
Cup Wins: 0
Seasons After Tanking Before Winning First Cup: N/A
Summary: Few teams have tanked as hard or as long as the Oilers. In seven straight years of bottoming out, they collected four 1st overall picks with mixed results. Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins became quality players, Leon Draisaitl blossomed into a superstar, and Connor McDavid became the best player in the world. But the misses on Nail Yakupov and Jesse Puljujarvi highlight the dangers of relying on draft luck alone.
Despite having two of the league’s most dominant players, the Oilers have yet to turn their tanking years into a Stanley Cup. With appearances in the finals in the last two years, they just weren't able to get past the dominant Panthers. It's hard to imagine McDavid going his whole career without winning a championship and many think it's only a matter of time before the Oilers bring the Cup back to Alberta.
Classification: Did tank, did not win, contender.
Florida Panthers
Tanking Seasons: 2009-2010 - 2013-2014
| Season | Team's League Finish | Team's Draft Pick | Pick Result | Player Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-2010 | 28th (3rd worst) | 3rd overall | Erik Gudbranson (D) | Bottom-line player, played 5 seasons, was packaged in a trade for Jared McCann (F, middle-line player) |
| 2010-2011 | 28th (3rd worst) | 3rd overall | Jonathan Huberdeau (F) | Elite player, played 10 seasons, was packaged in a trade for Matthew Tkachuk (F, elite player), who was key in winning 2 cups |
| 2011-2012 | 14th (17th worst) | 23rd overall | Mike Matheson (D) | Middle-line player, played 5 seasons, was traded for Patric Hornqvist (F, middle-line player) |
| 2012-2013 | 30th (1st worst) | 2nd overall | Aleksander Barkov (F) | Elite player, played 12 seasons, current captain for 8 seasons, won 3 Selke's and 2 Cups |
| 2013-2014 | 29th (2nd worst) | 1st overall | Aaron Ekblad (D) | Top-line player, played 11 seasons, won 2 Cups |
Cup Wins: 2 (2023-2024, 2024-2025)
Seasons Between Tanking and First Cup: 10
Summary: The reigning back-to-back champs certainly went through a tough stretch from 2009-2010 to 2013-2014. Although it's hard to say that it didn't pay off, with them landing Aleksander Barkov, Aaron Ekblad, and Jonathan Huberdeau. Smart moves by management were the key to helping the Panthers repeat. Jonathan Huberdeau was a cornerstone piece, and after putting up 115 points, he was dealt in a massive package for Matthew Tkachuk, who became central to the team’s playoff success. This goes to show that the players earned through tanking can be used in valuable ways, besides just their on-ice play.
These moves highlight how tanking can provide flexibility. It doesn’t just supply immediate talent, but also valuable trade assets that can accelerate a team’s competitive window. The Panthers’ management complemented their draft success with strong development and strategic acquisitions, eventually building a balanced roster from top to bottom, capable of winning back-to-back Cups. Their path demonstrates that sustained planning, rather than just hitting on one or two picks, is crucial to translating a tanking period into championship success.
Classification: Did tank, did win, contender.
Los Angeles Kings
Tanking Seasons: 2006-2007 - 2008-2009
| Season | Team's League Finish | Team's Draft Pick | Pick Result | Player Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006-2007 | 28th (3rd worst) | 4th overall | Thomas Hickey (D) | Non-NHL player, played 0 seasons, was claimed off waivers |
| 2007-2008 | 29th (2nd worst) | 2nd overall | Drew Doughty (D) | Elite player, played 17 seasons, won a Norris and 2 Cups |
| 2008-2009 | 26th (5th worst) | 5th overall | Brayden Schenn (F) | Prospect, traded in a package for Rob Bordson (F, non-NHL player) and Mike Richards (F, top-line player), who contributed to both Cup wins |
Cup Wins: 2 (2011-2012, 2013-2014)
Seasons After Tanking Before Winning First Cup: 3
Summary: The Kings have one of the fastest turnarounds, going from a team placing towards the bottom of the standings to a multiple-time Cup winner. After three bottom-5 finishes in a row, the Kings quickly got back into the playoffs for the next five years and won the Stanley Cup twice in that time span. Although most of their Cup-winning talent actually didn't come from their tanking picks, with Jonathan Quick being drafted in the third round, Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown being drafted outside the top-10, and trades for veterans like Mike Richards and Jeff Carter making a big impact, it's hard to argue that the Kings would've won these Cups without drafting Drew Doughty 2nd overall in 2008.
In the modern era, the Kings once again found themselves near the bottom of the standings. While not bad enough for long enough to count as a tanking period with my definition, L.A. was able to draft promising young players, Alex Turcotte at 5th overall in 2019, Quinton Byfield at 2nd overall in 2020, and Brandt Clarke at 8th overall in 2021. Turcotte hasn't quite developed the way many fans would have liked, but Byfield and Clarke have shown offensive promise. Will it be enough to replace the aging veterans is the question.
Classification: Did tank, did win, playoff team.
Minnesota Wild
Tanking Seasons: N/A
Cup Wins: 0
Seasons After Tanking Before Winning First Cup: N/A
Summary: In the 24 seasons that the Wild have played, they have made the playoffs 13 times. In those 13 playoff runs, the Wild have made it out of the first round only 3 times. The highest in the standings they've placed is 5th, while the lowest is 25th. Minnesota has constantly been competitive, but rarely dominant. Many blame this on the lack of star power they've had over the years. That is, until former fith round pick Kirill Kaprizov came over from Russia and gave Wild fans a truly elite player to cheer for.
Previous big moves from the Wild include the signings of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter in 2012, drafting Marian Gaborik, 3rd overall in their inaugural draft, and trading Kevin Fiala for eventual Calder runner-up, Brock Faber, and a first round pick. All these moves have made the Wild better (at least for a period of time), but nothing quite enough to make them contenders. Is Kaprizov and their current core enough to get them out of NHL purgatory, or will Minnesota remain good enough to stay out of the basement, but bad enough to not reach the top?
Classification: Did not tank, did win, bubble playoff team.
Montreal Canadiens
Tanking Seasons: 2021-2022 - 2023-2024
| Season | Team's League Finish | Team's Draft Pick | Pick Result | Player Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-2022 | 32nd (1st worst) | 1st overall | Juraj Slafkovsky (F) | Top-line player, played 3 seasons, has potential to grow |
| 2022-2023 | 28th (5th worst) | 5th overall | David Reinbacher (D) | Prospect, played 0 seasons |
| 2023-2024 | 28th (5th worst) | 5th overall | Ivan Demidov (F) | Prospect, played part of 1 season |
Cup Wins: 0
Seasons After Tanking Before Winning First Cup: N/A
Summary: Despite the odds, the Canadiens came very close to winning it all in 2021. After finishing 18th in the standings, they went to the finals due mostly to Carey Price's insane performance. Besides the Cinderella run, Montreal hasn't made much noise in the playoffs. Their offensive group in front of Price wasn't the greatest. Since the start of his career in 2007-2008, only one player (Alexei Kovalev) managed to register over 80 points in a season. It's clear they needed more firepower to get the job done.
Following the trip to the finals and Shea Webber and Price's last season, the Habs fell to dead last in the 2021-2022 season. They drafted the Slovak power forward, Juraj Slafkovsky at 1st overall, as well as defensemen David Reinbacher and forward Ivan Demidov, both taken 5th overall in the two following years. Along with second-round steal and recent Calder winner Lane Hutson and other promising prospects, the Habs look to have a bright future ahead of them.
Classification: Did not tank/now exiting a tank, did not win, bubble playoff team.
Nashville Predators
Tanking Seasons: N/A
Cup Wins: 0
Seasons After Tanking Before Winning First Cup: N/A
Summary: Nashville has more often than not finished around the middle of the standings. Their highest draft pick was Seth Jones, who they drafted 4th overall in 2013, but later traded for another 4th overall draft pick in Ryan Johansen, who filled their need of a high-end center at the time. The decision to try and stay competative year after year has produced regular playoff appearances, but rare appearances past the second round. A strong playoff run in 2017 found the Predators in the Cup finals, but they just couldn't get past Crosby and the Penguins.
They've managed to stay competative in part due to drafting elite goalies in Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros in later rounds, as well as a plethora of Defensemen (Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, and Roman Josi to name a few). Trades have typically gone well for them, see the Martin Erat for Filip Forsberg trade. Unfortunately for them, last summer's bold free agent signings didn't pay off the way they would've liked, after signing Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei to a combined $20.5 million per season. The Predators found themselves at the bottom of the standings, finishing 3rd last and landing the 5th overall pick, which they used to draft the wrecking ball forward Brady Martin. With an average age of 29.9 (the 9th oldest in the league), perhaps it's time for Nashville to inject some youth into their core and embrace a tank in hopes of returning to the Cup finals in their future.
Classification: Did not tank, did not win, non-playoff team.
Next Time
In part 2, the remaining 16 NHL teams will be covered, highlighting some of the most notable successes and failures of tanking. We’ll then dive into the numbers, breaking down how often tanking has worked, when it hasn’t, and how non-tanking teams have compared. We’ll also explore how long it typically takes for teams to win after a tank and wrap up with my final thoughts on the overall effectiveness of the strategy.